Bitcoin fell again during the trading session on Thursday, breaking down rather drastically. As I look at the hourly chart, we are following the Bollinger bands quite nicely, with the 20-hour simple moving average offering dynamic resistance. The hourly candle that is forming as I record this is a shooting star, and we are now near the $9650 level. In one point, it looks as if the market was tried to rally, but with the brutal selloff that we had seen during the trading session on Wednesday, I think we are going to continue to see a lot of volatility and quite frankly, fear. After all, breaking above the $10,000 level was a psychologically significant move, but also offers quite a bit of psychological pressure as traders begin to wonder whether the 1000% gain over the last year is sustainable. Anybody who’s traded more than about 15 minutes knows that it isn’t.

Another thing that I think is starting to weigh upon the market is that the futures contract coming in a couple of weeks on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange could offer a very easy way to sell this market. The more centralized that Bitcoin becomes, the less likely it is to attract fresh money that likes the anonymity of the concept. In general, I believe that we are still in a bubble, and I think we will rally from here. However, someday everything’s going to turn around and come crashing. That’s the thing about trading though, you notice where money is flowing into and you hang onto it until it doesn’t. If you’re especially spry, then you short it on the way back down. At this point, I think you are more than likely going to continue to see a lot of issues with the volatility, and I think that will keep a lot of retail players rather tense.